Joe Biden: large cracks in the dam wall

AS THINGS stand, Joe Biden's refusal to withdraw as the Democratic Party's candidate in the November presidential election will, with little doubt, mean victory for Donald Trump.

If Trump becomes the new president, it will seriously undermine American democracy and significantly disrupt the existing world order and power balances. It will also negatively affect South Africa and Africa and could mark the beginning of the end of Ukraine's attempt to defend itself against Russia.

According to the polls, American voters have been saying for a few years that Biden is too old to serve a second term. Then came Biden's catastrophic televised debate with Trump on June 27, where he appeared as a very old man with dementia. According to the latest polling, more than 70% of voters now believe he is too old.

By all standards, Biden has been a good and effective president who brought normality and empathy after Trump's first term. The entire world (except Russia and North Korea) breathed a sigh of relief when Trump's madness ended.

Meanwhile, Trump fuelled the insurrection of January 6, 2021, when hordes attacked the Capitol in Washington to disrupt the declaration of the election results; he still claims he actually won. He has been criminally convicted of falsifying his business records and faces several other criminal charges.

This is  someone who blatantly lies every time he makes a speech, and who is now the favourite to become the next president — mainly because voters think Biden is physically too fragile and mentally incapable.

Biden will turn 82 two weeks after the election on November 5. Friend and foe point out that he has noticeably weakened since becoming president in January 2021, and this decline is highly likely to worsen exponentially over the next four years. If he is indeed elected and does not die in office, he will be 86 on the last day of his term.

A few lively speeches

Biden has given a few lively speeches since his debate with Trump but refuses to hold an open 90-minute press conference to show his mettle, as CNN and some of his Democratic colleagues demand.

He did have an interview with ABC News's George Stephanopoulos but it only weakened his case. He said the debate was just a “bad episode" and that he had a cold. When asked if he had watched the debate afterwards, he stammered, “I don’t think I did".

Stephanopoulos, once a senior adviser to President Bill Clinton and strategist for the Democratic Party, remarked afterwards: “I don't think he can serve four more years."

Elected Democrats in the US legislature are slow to say publicly that they believe Biden should step down, probably out of respect: they want him to decide himself. Only 10 Congress members have demanded this so far.

Hollywood star George Clooney, a major and influential donor to the party, said this week that Biden should step down immediately. He says he has spoken to most Democratic senators and Congress members and they all agree with him.

The Washington Post reports: “There’s a growing consensus among Senate Democrats that the situation with Biden at the top of the ticket is untenable.”

Influential writer and journalist Adam Serwer wrote in The Atlantic that Biden should resign immediately “to give American democracy its best chance of surviving”.

Rumours of seven recent visits by neurologists to the White House and many versions of Biden’s slips and awkward moments dominate the American media. White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre has had to deny from her podium that Biden has Alzheimer's or dementia.

According to The New York Times: “In the weeks and months before President Biden’s politically devastating performance on the debate stage in Atlanta, several current and former officials and others who encountered him behind closed doors noticed that he increasingly appeared confused or listless, or would lose the thread of conversations.”

Democrats are frustrated that the media are focusing on Biden's health and not more on Trump's slips and absurd and dangerous statements. Almost all the senior people who served in the Trump administration (those not already found guilty of crimes) have indicated that they will not vote for him because he is a danger to democracy.

Veteran Republican operative and Trump friend Roger Stone quoted Napoleon: “Never interrupt your enemy while he’s in the process of destroying himself."

Stephanopoulos asked Biden: “If you can be convinced that you cannot defeat Trump, will you stand down?” Biden replied: “If the Lord Almighty comes down and tells me that, I might do that.”

A better chance for Kamala Harris

Ironically, the latest polls suggest that Kamala Harris, Biden’s vice president, has a better chance of beating Trump.

Even if Biden were to gather the most votes again, the arithmetic of the American electoral college system is against him. He cannot win if he does not win the Democratic strongholds of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, and Trump is leading in those states.

It increasingly looks as if the dam wall will soon break. One of the most influential Democrats, former speaker Nancy Pelosi, might take the lead. In an interview with MSNBC, she said Biden would have to decide very soon if he still wants to be the candidate, which is interpreted as pressure on him to withdraw.

The party leader in the Senate, Chuck Schumer, has also indicated to the inner circle that he would be open to a new candidate, according to a report in Axios.

One theory is that the Democrats requested an early presidential debate, much earlier than usual, to make Biden realise he is no longer as sharp as before.

Almost all the influential mainstream media that strongly supported Biden are now preparing for him to withdraw, including CNN, MSNBC and ABC.

There is pressure for an “open convention” of the party on August 19, when a candidate must be nominated, rather than it being a foregone conclusion. This would still mean Biden has to release the delegates he already has behind his name or transfer them to another candidate.

It increasingly looks as if Harris will be that candidate, especially since she will have access to all the money raised so far as part of the Biden/Harris campaign.

Perhaps the catastrophe of Trump returning as president of the US can still be avoided.

* Read Piet Croucamp's essay on America and its relationship with South Africa here.

♦ VWB ♦

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