Letter from America | Let the Walz begin

MY gang of Los Angeles friends host a goodbye dinner for me in the Palisades. We have carnitas on the grill, corn tortillas, tomatillo salsa verde and a spectacular sunset over the Pacific.

But the conversation is all about Tim Walz (and whisky – a spectacular bottle from Japan, to be specific).

We watch a rerun of Kamala Harris and new running mate Walz's first joint rally in Philadelphia.

This is a true-blue crowd – people who have been in a state of depression over the spectre of another Donald Trump presidency, especially after Joe Biden's impotent showing at the top of the Democratic ticket.

The governor of Pennsylvania, Josh Shapiro, appears on stage wearing sneakers and a crisp, white, open-necked shirt.

He is an inspiring orator. Shades of Barack Obama. 

Shapiro, Arizona Senator Mark Kelly and Walz were on Harris's shortlist for vice president, and she interviewed them last weekend.

While Harris and Walz did not enjoy much of a previous relationship, aides told CNN that Harris grew increasingly enthused by his “authenticity” and the way the Minnesota governor carried himself. They said she experienced a warm chemistry with him during their final meeting at her residence.

Commentators on MSNBC quote inside sources saying Shapiro's interview with Harris “did not go as well as it could have" and that he decided to withdraw after their conversation, preferring to stay on as governor.

Shapiro gives Number One vibes. He is not an understudy, and if there is one thing Harris knows, it is what it takes to be Number Two – to be the bridesmaid, not the bride. 

Shapiro has Big Charisma. When he tells the crowd he loves them, their response is raucous and enthusiastic. 

“I love being your governor and I will continue to focus on getting s**t done,” he says, adding that he will play his part in delivering Pennsylvania for the Democrats in the election.  

It is a key battleground state, and the road to the White House goes straight through it, so having Shapiro on board is key. 

(In 2020, Biden defeated Trump there by 50% to 48.8%. In 2016, Trump took the state over Hillary Clinton, 48.2% to 47.5%.)

Shapiro calls Walz a great man as the crowd yells, “Preach!”

It is a spectacular and believable show of party unity.

Walz responds to Shapiro by saying: “What a treasure you have in Josh Shapiro." And then, in reference to Shapiro's hands-on, pragmatic governing: “When you need a bridge fixed, call that guy."

“This is so moving," says Laura. “It feels as if something deep is shifting."

Sarah wipes away tears. “It feels as if the sun has come out again. Even if the Democrats don't win, at least this is a version of my country that I can relate to."

Chemistry

After 50 minutes on stage together, the personal chemistry between Harris and Walz is palpable. For a campaign that is essentially a two-week startup, everything about their interaction feels extraordinarily smooth and authentic. As one analyst frames it: “Their natural chemistry is reminiscent of Clinton and Gore."

The Philly rally is all about turning a little-known Democrat into a star. And to do this, Harris goes in hard on the legend of “Coach Walz".

She speaks about Walz's rural upbringing in Nebraska. Then about him becoming a high school teacher and a football coach who turned a hopeless loser team into the state champions. 

In the American syntax, the football metaphor counts. Big.

As one commentator puts it, Walz is “a meatloaf and mac and cheese" candidate.

He is the relatable, normie, rural uncle in a plaid shirt, the no-BS straight talker, and he ticks many boxes for the Democrats. They are clearly hoping he will have bipartisan appeal.

“He reads Republican," says one commentator. “He is mid-Western nice. He is authentic. That is his superpower."

He grew up in the Midwest, the son of a farmer. He is a hunter and a gun owner. He volunteered for the army at 17 and has been a National Guard member for almost three decades. He is a union guy and the highest-ranking enlisted man yet to  serve in Congress. He was the top Democrat on the Veterans Committee in Congress (and the Capitol's best marksman).

Gun control is a hot-button issue in this election, and on this he comes out guns blazing with an authority that not many Democrats can claim.

When Harris posted a video asking Walz to join the ticket, he accepted from his living room, where he was sitting on a wicker chair wearing a black T-shirt, khakis, bright white sneakers and a camo hat.

The campaign was quick to act, releasing a version of the cap emblazoned with “HARRIS WALZ”. The first 3,000 sold out almost immediately and since Wednesday the campaign has sold caps worth almost $1 million on pre-order. 

“In Minnesota, we believe in the Second Amendment but we also believe in commonsense gun laws," Walz tells a roaring crowd in Philadelphia.

Last year, Walz signed a broad public safety law in Minnesota that includes two gun measures: a “red flag law” and expanded background checks for gun transfers. The red flag law allows authorities to ask courts for “extreme risk protection orders” to temporarily confiscate guns from people deemed an imminent threat to others or themselves.

In the American context, this is radical legislation. Walz has the authenticity to flip the Second Amendment, a political stick of dynamite in this election, on its head.

The other big issue is abortion. While Trump and Vance pander to the extreme right on the issue, Walz is an outspoken supporter of reproductive rights and was vocal about protecting access after the US Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022.

At the rally he says: “In Minnesota, we respect our neighbours and their personal choices that they make. Even if we wouldn’t make the same choice for ourselves, there’s a golden rule: mind your own damn business."

Weird as hell

Harris/Walz feels markedly different from the Maga campaign.

“Thank you,” Walz tells Harris at the start of his speech in Philadelphia, “for bringing back the joy.”

This is a good-vibes campaign. There is a lightness to the messaging. Walz uses the J-word and the K-word – joy and kindness. Commentators say it is a deliberate attempt to energise the party base out of the fog of gloom that has paralysed it, but also to activate a key demographic – young voters, Gen Z, a cohort that responds to “feels".

But it is not only about sweetness and light.

Walz also uses his folksy charm to go after the Republican's vice-presidential candidate, JD Vance. The two men are from rust belt states where the margin is tight between the two parties, and undecided voters are a key target for both parties. 

“Like all regular people I grew up with in the heartland, JD studied at Yale, had his career funded by Silicon Valley billionaires and then wrote a bestseller trashing that community,” says Walz.

At some point during Shapiro's warm-up, the crowd chants of Vance: “He’s a weirdo.”

Walz was the first person to call him that, after which the characterisation went viral. It is now a key plank of the Democratic Party's messaging.

Harris says the comparison between her pick, Walz, and Trump's pick, Vance, is a “matchup between the varsity and JV squad”, meaning junior varsity. For his part, to cheers, the Democratic vice-presidential nominee declares: “I can’t wait to debate the guy,” adding of Trump and Vance: “These guys are creepy and, yes, just weird as hell.”

Honeymoon

The Democrats are ruling the new cycle of the campaign, but this is a honeymoon phase. There is a three-month slog to the finishing line and the Trump Republicans, with their aggressive Maga messaging, are still in the lead.

Harris admits as much at the Pennsylvania rally.

“We’ve got some work to do. We need to move to the general election and win that. We also need to level-set. We are the underdog in this race … I know what we are up against.”

But two weeks after she became the Democratic nominee, the surge in enthusiasm and support for Harris has considerably narrowed the gap.  

She has an outright lead over Trump in three most recent polls, including those conducted by Daily Kos/Civiqs (49% to 45%), Reuters (43% to 42%), and Morning Consult (47% to 46%). 

According to a new Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll, Harris has erased Trump's lead in the seven swing states that will probably determine the election. 

While the Democrats, especially with Walz in the mix, now have a shot at the popular vote, the electoral college will decide the outcome.

It is composed of state representatives who each cast one electoral vote after the voting in the general election. Each state gets a certain number of electors based on its total number of representatives in Congress, which reflects population numbers for that state. There are 538 electoral votes and the candidate who gets a majority (270) wins the election. 

That is why the battleground states are so important. In 2016, Clinton won the popular vote but still lost the election. 

What we can say for sure, after Biden's disastrous debate performance against Trump on June 27 and his subsequent withdrawal, is that Harris’s growing strength and momentum have turned a  totally lopsided race into a toss-up.  

But it is not over until the fat lady sings. Or in this case, the rather large man.

♦ VWB ♦

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