Why the unity government will last

POLITICAL consultant and analyst Daniel Silke believes ideological differences and the clearly distinguishable political agendas of the ANC and the DA pose a permanent threat to the viability of the government of national unity (GNU). These historical and identity differences within President Cyril Ramaphosa's cabinet also fuel the general public's uncertainty about the GNU.

But let's go back to where it all began. The days after May 29 were strange times on the floor of the Electoral Commission (IEC) results centre at Gallagher Estate in Midrand. The IEC provided each political party with a modest table, a computer screen and a few chairs.

From the ANC's powerful Gwede Mantashe to the Freedom Front Plus's  shock troops, they sat on white plastic chairs until late at night, staring at their disappointing results high on the wall with a sense of uncertain expectation.

For political reporters who had endured the arrogance of  Mantashe and Nomvula Mokonyane over the decades, the obvious embarrassment of these two cadres was amusing, but for the ANC it was the new political reality.

The ANC of May 28 and the ANC of May 30 are not the same political phenomenon. Elections are sometimes the great equaliser.

Less pessimistic

For me, there is another, less pessimistic way to look at South Africa's seventh and most challenging administration. Strangely enough, the very things that have divided and antagonised the protagonists in the past are now the lifeblood of the GNU. To tell the truth, I'm quite certain the GNU has the qualities to endure until the next national and provincial elections.

I am also convinced that this agreement gives us the best possible political and economic chance to make a difference in the quality of life of most South Africans. I suspect the GNU will survive because there is no other choice. Good governance may be too much to ask, but given our backlogs – astronomical unemployment, lack of economic growth and dilapidated infrastructure – this is our first real chance at better governance, and it is our best hope.

Scepticism among analysts and the public is fuelled by public disputes between political elites on the periphery of the GNU. From time to time, ANC officials such as Fikile Mbalula take issue with statements made by the DA's Helen Zille about her understanding of the GNU. Zille says the agreement between the ANC and her party is not a government of national unity but a coalition government.

She is theoretically probably more right than wrong, and in most cases Luthuli House reacts to what it thinks Zille has said rather than what she has actually said.

Zille has an analytical frontal lobe, and she knows definitions are an important pillar of any sustainable agreement, especially for complex political agreements between historical protagonists.

However, the public struggle between Zille and members of the ANC's top seven is not necessarily an indication of the centrifugal forces within the GNU. In an ironic way, public resentment is the bonding material between the protagonists and legitimises the GNU.

It is essential that political elites make public statements at an organisational level which allow their respective support bases and the general public to distinguish between the political partners of the alliance/coalition or GNU.

For the sake of internal consensus, the ANC desperately needs Zille, especially at this early stage of the political agreement. Her ability to rile ANC apparatchiks ironically supports Ramaphosa's efforts to convince the South African Communist Party (SACP) and Cosatu that the ANC and the DA have not sold each other out.

But her intractable statements also remind the ANC that it depends on the DA for the likelihood of good or even just better governance.

Dependence on each other

Many South Africans, including the traditional ANC support base, may also now realise that the GNU is our last and perhaps only option. The ANC no longer has the political capacity to turn the country around, and no other party's support base is large enough to take over the project at Luthuli House.

This dependence on each other makes all parties, but expecially the ANC and the DA, pragmatic political animals rather than the ideological protagonists of the past.

The need for parties to enter agreements with historical competitors for the sake of their own survival has certainly led to the so-called middle ground – or areas of consensus and compromise – being sought with greater zeal.

The ANC's most recent lekgotla was, for me – one who has been watching these types of ANC gatherings with excessive curiosity for decades – a strange experience. The aura of the GNU has given the ANC gathering a new definition.

Ramaphosa was ultimately fully in control of his party and left no ambiguity with his comrades that the GNU is the country's top priority. Even the SACP and the trade unions had to hear that it is strategically South Africa's only option and that it is the path the ANC will inevitably have to take. The ANC president clearly ties his own political legacy to the survival and success of the GNU.

The introspection and mature reflection at the meeting at Birchwood Conference Centre in Boksburg makes it clear that the ANC realises it is not just the emergence of the MK Party that has pushed it below 40% at the polls, but also poor policy, systemic corruption, and a conspicuous lack of understanding of the interests and needs of ordinary South Africans.

Luthuli House and the ANC national executive committee (NEC) now know and acknowledge that they're not only to blame for the recent election results but for a trajectory of decline since 1994. For a party usually obsessed with an ideological approach to reality, this is a sobering thought.

According to Ramaphosa and the NEC, even the instability of municipalities and metros has to be addressed in the context of the GNU. I hear that during the last three days of the lekgotla, when premiers and mayors were also present, various political realities were whispered in the ear of Gauteng Premier Panyaza Lesufi. Among other things, that he should withdraw his tentacles from Gauteng's local governments and that coalition agreements will henceforth be determined at national level rather than provincially.

Centrifugal forces

At first glance, Silke's concerns about the centrifugal forces within the GNU are not entirely unfounded. There are quite a few contradictions in the GNU. The PAC's Mzwanele Nyhontso (Minister of Land Reform and Rural Development) and the DA's John Steenhuisen (Minister of Agriculture) could not have been more politically distant if they had been born on different continents.

A year ago, the DA was willing to hand the Johannesburg metro to the ANC on a silver platter because the imperial order in Cape Town did not see a chance for the Patriotic Alliance's “corrupt" Gayton McKenzie. Now the flamboyant McKenzie holds the receptive hand of Dean Macpherson during the short prayer before cabinet meetings.

Until recently, there was a consensus in the ANC that the liberation party would rule until Jesus comes and that the DA and white monopoly capital could be treated with disdain. The idea that the ANC would be willing to share power with other parties was far-fetched, and power-sharing with the DA was simply unimaginable. When Steenhuisen raised his “ridiculous" idea of a “moonshot pact" at the DA's leadership election in April 2023, I was one of the sceptics who dismissed it as a premature pipe dream.

His idea of a sustainable agreement with the ANC that would keep the EFF out of government was simply too far in the future and unrealistic for most of us. At that time, the MK Party was not even on our radar. Well, Steenhuisen and Zille were visionary, because that's exactly where we are now.

♦ VWB ♦

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