The USA isn’t simple, and neither is its election

I'M no expert on American politics, but I've driven from New York to San Francisco, done construction work in seven states and travelled through more than 30 others over 18 months, mostly hitchhiking on the highway alongside dagga smokers, cocaine snorters and ordinary Yanks.

During the last of those 18 months, Namibian soulmate and fellow schemer Wouter van Zijl and his wife joined me, and our musings about “the real Yank" transformed many of my infantile ideas into an understanding of the complexity of America.

So I can claim to have seen something more of George Washington's country than many political commentators and keyboard warriors.

In the run-up to the November 5 US election, in common with the rest of the world, I am fixated on media and social media conversations about what's going on and where America is headed. As far as I'm concerned, it's time again for an old-school Democrat as president, one with a working conscience.

The law does not allow this, but perhaps an exception should be made for Barack Obama: get him back in the White House. Alternatively, bring on Michelle Obama; she would be just as good or better.

But because I don't make the decisions, I pray that Kamala Harris wins the election, even though she is not necessarily what America needs right now. Like Trump, she has a distractible activist approach to politics that I don't trust. The fact that she named former teacher and Minnesota governor Tim Walz as her choice for vice president saves Harris from many shortcomings.

Despite my wishful thinking, however, there is a reasonable probability that Donald Trump will win. The director of the documentaries Bowling for Columbine and Fahrenheit 9/11, Michael Moore, correctly predicted Trump's victory in 2016. His argument was simple: Trump's election is the middle class pointing its middle finger at the establishment.

There is an argument to be made that the middle classes worldwide are burdened by excessive debt, high inflation and rising interest rates and that this affects political behaviour terminally. The perception among the middle classes that the super-rich don't pay super-taxes makes the so-called American establishment political target number one.

Even though America has a low unemployment rate, I don't know if the lives and worlds of the middle class have changed enough since 2016 to reassure them about the political intentions of Washington. The irony that Trump is suspected of managing his taxes to the detriment of his responsibilities is not lost on me.

And here comes the part of my argument that may be something new to readers. Trump's political home is also one of the most ethnically and culturally diverse nations, with significant immigrant populations. Just more than 59% of Americans are white, down from 80% in 1980, 69% in 2000 and 66% in 2008. The era of the white male head of a nuclear family is clearly numbered, but it is an open question whether the political system has adapted to this reality. What is true is that demographic flux and change are bringing Americans into a bloody battle with the complexity of diversity.

These new demographic realities are also affecting Europe, but in America the historical consensus on how to define the common good is being challenged. In Europe, the presence of Muslim communities is the issue, while Americans are struggling with the complex number of new definitions about what it means to be a Yank.

The questions raised by the woke phenomenon, transgender discourse and “cancel culture" have a direct influence on Americans' cherished identity. These are associated with left or liberal politics. Because these concepts have points of contact with the “social justice" and “freedom of speech" issues, they touch almost every raw nerve of the so-called American consensus. But because these are primarily perceptual conversations raging at elite academic institutions, I am not convinced they necessarily affect the outcome of US elections.

The larger reality for Americans, and something analysts need to be reminded of regularly, is the degree to which the economic wellbeing of the average Yank determines their political behaviour. Jim Carville was an adviser to my other favourite politician, “Slick Willy" Bill Clinton, during his 1992 election campaign. He is famous for the expression, “It's the economy, stupid." The impact of social media conversations is not trivial, but bread and butter issues drive voting behaviour.

If you don't mind being right sometimes and wrong often, you can regularly spew mixed wisdom on social media. You will never feel lonely because you are in the infinite company of millions of people, including Elon Musk. The X owner is a big fan of the Republican candidate for the upcoming election. His reactionary understanding of freedom of speech creates space for politicians such as Trump to live out his pathological lies, delusions of grandeur and narcissism, all amid the appeasement of dictators such as Valdimir Putin and Kim Jong-un.

Under the banner of freedom of speech, Musk creates a platform for characters like Trump to preach lies and ignorance about everything from Covid-19 to climate change – to whoever will listen.

However, certain aspects of the so-called leftist narrative also give reactionaries such as Tucker Carlson (former Fox News host), Ben Shapiro (The Daily Wire), Jordan Peterson (Canadian clinical psychologist) and Glenn Greenwald (journalist and co-founder of The Intercept) all the oxygen they need to incite the middle class against the so-called establishment. And, if Moore is right, this reality could indeed mean, to quote Walz, “weird" characters ending up in the White House.

My left-of-centre political instincts mean these public figures' understanding of America's ways affronts me, but that doesn't mean they're necessarily wrong in everything they spout. Except maybe Carlson, who is as crazy as a rabbit as far as I'm concerned. And since Habakkuk 13:6 says every person is entitled to two prejudices, he and Peterson are my pet hates.

But America is not a simple political phenomenon. Its nominal GDP (more than $25 trillion) makes it the world's largest economy and the US dollar is the international political economy's primary reserve currency, accounting for about 60% of global foreign exchange reserves. The US economy hosts the world's largest stock markets, with the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq having a combined market capitalisation of more than $40 trillion.

Sometimes it seems as if a pathological patriotic drive is the only maladjustment that unites Americans. However, the contradictions are astonishing. The ranchers from Texas and the “law boys" from Chicago live in two different galaxies, and travelling from east to west through the country is as exploratory as moving feet first through a birth canal.

The paramilitary headspace of an unhealthy cross-section of gun owners is seemingly in conflict with an intellectual tradition that houses more than half of the world's top 20 universities, including institutions such as Harvard, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Stanford. No one from Texas is going to win the Nobel Peace Prize, but a significant percentage of Nobel prize winners in various fields, especially science and economics, are based in the US or are American citizens.

The US spends more on its military than the next 10 countries combined. With an annual defence budget of more than $800 billion, it maintains more than 800 military bases in more than 70 countries, a global footprint unmatched by any other nation. While America has one of the largest and potentially most destructive nuclear arsenals (5,500 weapons), it also consistently ranks high in global innovation indices and is home to leading technology companies such as Apple, Microsoft, Google and Amazon.

America is a world leader in medical research and development, especially in pharmaceuticals and biotechnology. The country spends more per capita on healthcare than any other jurisdiction, but is plagued by challenges in terms of healthcare access and outcomes. America is one of the biggest sinners when it comes to greenhouse gases but a leader in renewable energy investment and innovation.

As far as South African interests are concerned, if Harris and Walz occupy the White House for the next four years, America will be the only major political economy with which we have a positive trade balance. We will be praised for our policy towards Israel and warned about our soft touch with Vladimir Putin's Russia. If Trump returns to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, America will become an unpredictable political partner with serious consequences for our struggling economy.

♦ VWB ♦

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