Crack the whip, Cyril

THE formation of the government of national unity (GNU) was wonderful news for South Africans yearning for effective governance, peaceful coexistence and progress. But it’s not a one-time event, just the beginning of a complex process that will require strong, brave and strategic leadership to succeed.

The collapse of the GNU would only mean that reactionary, old-school Africanists and rent-seekers à la Zanu-PF would seize power. That would be catastrophic.

The GNU does have a captain: Cyril Matamela Ramaphosa. His command team and crew since 2018, and sometimes his lack of inner conviction, have let him down at times, allowing the ship to drift into stormy waters or dangerously close to the rocks.

It seems the shock of May 29 has set his compass right. On June 2, at the headquarters of the Electoral Commission of SA, which had just announced that his party could muster only 39.7% of the vote, he uttered four words that silenced the doomsayers of many years: “Our people have spoken.”

He thanked the people of South Africa for once again giving life and meaning to our constitutional democracy and said: “This is the time for all of us to put South Africa first.”

If Jacob Zuma or his proxy had been in charge, the ANC would probably  have followed the path of Zimbabwe, Venezuela or Donald Trump. Zuma even contested the outcome of the election, even though his MK Party performed better than opinion polls had predicted.

Two weeks of intense negotiations with other political parties followed. For sure, most of Ramaphosa's members saw the solution as obvious: an alliance with the two black nationalist parties that had broken away from the ANC.

And then he chose the DA and the ANC’s other old enemy, the IFP, as main partners. (And he made sure his 40% party retained the posts of president, deputy president, speaker, and key cabinet jobs.)

Only Ramaphosa could have achieved this. It was as if his entire life up to that point had prepared him for this moment. Cometh the hour…

It seems Ramaphosa has found a second wind. And this happened after he offered his resignation in November 2022 when Judge Sandile Ngcobo found that there was a prima facie case against him regarding the Phala Phala theft.

Now Ramaphosa has five years left to establish his legacy and place in history.

If South Africa makes significant progress in governance, economic growth and social justice from now until 2029, historians will place Ramaphosa right next to Nelson Mandela on the throne.

(That is if the person elected as the new ANC president in December 2027 doesn’t insist on immediately becoming the country’s president, as was the case with Zuma after Mbeki and Ramaphosa after Zuma.)

Since February 2018, Ramaphosa has disappointed many people with what has been described as hesitant leadership, even spinelessness.

But more important than any weaknesses, he stemmed the tide of populism in the ANC; he dampened the party’s socialist instincts and distrust of the markets; and he has done much to restore the rule of law and constitutionalism.

And now, with the GNU, he has finally transformed the ANC from a liberation movement with accompanying revolutionary rhetoric into a more modern and proper political party under the banner of social democracy.

The rebuilding of South Africa is not possible without the active participation of the private sector. Ramaphosa is the only ANC leader who could and can make that happen. We are already reaping the benefits.

He has good potential in his new cabinet, although a few dinosaurs like Gwede Mantashe remain. Senzo Mchunu seems like a dramatic improvement over his predecessor as Minister of Police, Bheki Cele. Parks Tau is streets ahead of the dogmatic Ebrahim Patel as Minister of Trade and Industry.

Kgosientsho Ramokgopa is an energetic Minister of Energy. Leon Schreiber is making excellent, visible progress at Home Affairs, as are Dean McPherson at Public Works and Infrastructure, Siviwe Gwarube at Basic Education and Barbara Creecy at Transport.

Enoch Godongwana remains a stalwart at Finance. Khumbudzo Ntshaveni shows a lot of energy as Minister in the Presidency. I have no reason to think John Steenhuisen won’t be an effective Minister of Agriculture, and Pieter Groenewald won’t tolerate nonsense at Correctional Services.

I haven’t heard anything negative about Velenkosini Hlabisa at Cooperative Governance or Solly Malatsi at Communication and Digital Technology, and Dion George at Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment has a good reputation as a talented and hardworking person.

Unlike any time since 1994, most members of the executive now have stronger technocratic than ideological instincts. This is what makes countries successful.

As things stand, the parties in the GNU will probably be able to live with each other, even if there are occasional squabbles and even with a local election on the horizon. I hope Ramaphosa and Steenhuisen have made progress in building a trusting relationship. Fikile Mbalula and Helen Zille can bark to keep their respective party bases happy; it doesn’t have to undermine the cabinet.

But I hope Ramaphosa and his ANC inner circle realise that the laissez-faire attitude of his previous administration won’t pull the wagon through the drift, as the Afrikaans saying goes.

South Africa is at a  dangerous level of brokenness that will require almost superhuman energy, ingenuity and dedication to heal.

Now that Ramaphosa no longer has to constantly dodge or appease the Zuma faction in his party, he has the freedom to be more of a CEO of SA Inc than a political leader.

Someone should place a sign on his desk that reads: the buck stops here. Here, not in Luthuli House or the ANC's national executive committee.

Our economy shows a few green shoots with low inflation that will surely lead to a solid interest rate cut next month. Our currency isn’t doing too badly. With the help of the private sector, our ports and railway system are slowly improving. We haven’t had load-shedding for five months. Business confidence is better after the establishment of the GNU.

But we can’t wait for the economy to slowly recover to bring down the terrible high unemployment rate – the harshest red light flashing. Ramaphosa must listen to the 150 CEOs who have made a pact with his government and other real experts on how to create new jobs, and implement their recommendations immediately, even if the unions cry crocodile tears. 

In his first State of the Nation Address on February 16, 2018, Ramaphosa said: “We are going to address the decline over many years of our manufacturing capacity, which has deeply affected employment and exports. We will seek to reindustrialise on a scale and at a pace that draws millions of job seekers into the economy.”

The opposite happened. NOW is the moment to make that promise a reality. Vision, and action.

Ramaphosa must insist on a drastic action plan to fix crime intelligence, the Hawks, and the police and detective service. Crime and violence are tearing our nation apart, and organised crime and phenomena like the construction mafia and protection racketeering are undermining our entrepreneurs and economy.

Our state hospitals and clinics outside the Western Cape have long been places where vulnerable people are abused and humiliated rather than healed. Ramaphosa must insist that all state hospitals be run as effectively as those in the Western Cape, then he will find that we don’t really need national health insurance.

He must crack the whip on his party leaders in struggling provinces, metros and towns, and once again point out that the DA performs so much better where it governs. Please, no hiding behind the argument that the three levels of government prohibits interference.

The decline in Johannesburg and Durban and in the Eastern Cape, North West and the Free State is a damning indictment of the ANC.

Ramaphosa must not just give orders to his ministers; he must monitor their progress and dismiss those who do not perform.

He doesn’t need to be terrified of the opposition parties outside the GNU.

The EFF dropped to below 10% support in the election and is likely to decline further and faster with Floyd Shivambu’s resignation.

Zuma’s MK Party is thus far more a Zuma cult and a gathering of the aggrieved and crooks than a political movement. The party has no constitution or real policy documents, and its longing for pre-modern times is out of sync with the national psyche. Zuma is 83 and lets his ridiculous daughter make the important decisions.

Shivambu has more experience in party politics and parliament, but it’s unlikely that Zuma and his cronies and henchmen will allow him to change much.

Some political writers describe Shivambu as a brilliant political mind and strategist. I have yet to see that, and the question remains: if that’s true, why has the EFF regressed so much under his and Julius Malema’s leadership in the last few years?

Opinion polls by the Social Research Foundation shortly before the election found that more than 80% of people consider job creation and economic growth rather than land confiscation, which is MK Party policy, as the way out of poverty. Twice as many people (40%) preferred an ANC/DA alliance over an ANC/EFF/MKP alliance (19%).

Ramaphosa can rest assured: if the GNU is effective and can show fairly quickly that it can deliver proper services, the MK Party won’t be much of a factor in 2029.

And he, Cyril, must make it happen.

♦ VWB ♦

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