Long live the GNU – but make us safe and deliver basic services

ONE can state as a fact that South Africa under the government of national unity (GNU) is significantly better off than it would have been had the ANC continued to govern on its own after the May elections.

However, the GNUphoria among the public and the business community is in danger of following the same path as the Ramaphoria of 2018 if the two aspects of governance that most directly and immediately affect ordinary citizens do not soon drastically improve: Ever-crumbling local governments and crime, or citizens' safety.

Crime syndicates, chaotic and violent illegal mining operations and the construction mafia delaying infrastructure development have grown significantly during Cyril Ramaphosa's presidency since 2018, even though formal state capture was largely halted.

In the last year, kidnappings, extortion of businesses and mass shootings have suddenly increased significantly. One consequence is that tourism in the Eastern Cape is rapidly shrinking.

The new police minister, Senzo Mchunu, is, by all accounts, an improvement on his predecessor, Bheki Cele, but the police service's dysfunction and the severe shortage of experienced detectives are not issues that can be resolved within a few months.

One of the most significant developments since the election is the talks Mchunu is reportedly having with the private security industry to help combat crime. There are four times more security guards than police officers in South Africa.

Business as usual

As for the governance issue, city and town management and the provision of local services can significantly improve in the short and medium term. This is clearly not a priority for the ANC. In most ANC-controlled municipalities, it’s business as usual.

The events in Tshwane over the past two weeks are proof that the internal power and ideological struggles within the ANC are more important than service delivery and effective governance.

It is empirically provable that the ousted DA mayor, Cilliers Brink, and his coalition made significant progress in governing the struggling capital over the past year, including progress with financial discipline, debt collection and infrastructure.

And then, completely against the spirit of the GNU, the ANC and EFF voted him out, in collaboration with ActionSA. On Wednesday, he was replaced by Nasiphi Moya of ActionSA and she will have to appoint a management team consisting mostly of ANC and EFF members in the coming days.

ActionSA leader Herman Mashaba admitted in an interview with Rian van Heerden on kykNet on Tuesday evening that he did not leave the DA-led coalition because Brink’s administration performed poorly but because the DA had “stabbed him in the back" and secretly spoke with the ANC.

ActionSA, which received only 1,2% of the vote in the election, is now following the path of Cope, which fell from an initial 7% support to 0,09%.

Brink’s dismissal and Moya’s election were greeted with brutal triumphalism by ANC and EFF council members.

The EFF has already warned that they are going to get rid of the city’s manager, Johann Mettler, after he reprimanded city employees for jeering at and insulting Brink when he left the council chamber after his defeat.

Mettler is widely regarded as an effective and experienced administrator. Previously he made a significant difference in the administration of Nelson Mandela Bay before he was also ousted through politicking, which was promptly followed by chaos.

The DA is now threatening to suspend its agreements with the ANC that are meant to stabilise the metros.

The events in Tshwane represent a small victory for the anti-GNU faction in the ANC, which is at its strongest in Gauteng.

Premier Panyaza Lesufi had to explain his lack of enthusiasm for the GNU to the ANC’s top officials in an interview with Sizwe Mpofu-Walsh this week after secretary-general Fikile Mbalula took offence. However, Lesufi won this round – anyone who listens to his statements knows what he means, but he carefully chose his words to get away with it. Watch the interview here:

Lesufi must pray and hope that his party and their partners in Tshwane will perform visibly better than Brink and his team, or the DA might become the largest party in the metro by 2026 – and in some of the other metros. The DA, with its track record of good governance in the Western Cape, generally performs better in local than in national elections.

The ANC’s alliance partners, Cosatu and the Communist party (SACP), also regularly express their dissatisfaction with the inclusion of the DA in the GNU. SACP leader Solly Mapaila declared this week that the GNU means "our country is back in the hands of the Boers".

But Ramaphosa, with his second wind – according to his coalition partners, the glue holding the GNU together – understands well that the GNU has the support of most South Africans.

This week, a poll by the Social Research Foundation, which was remarkably close to the mark before the May 29 election, showed that the anti-GNU forces are weakening while the three major parties in the GNU, the ANC, DA and IFP, have stronger support today than they did during the election. ANC support has risen from 40% on election day to 45%, the DA’s from 21,8% to 24%, and the IFP’s from 3,4% to 5%. Jacob Zuma’s MK Party’s support has dropped from 14,6% to 12%, and the EFF’s from 9,5% to 6%.

The DA now reportedly has just as much black support as the EFF:

If the poll is correct and the trend continues, the paranoia in Luthuli House that causes dissidents to be treated gently for fear they will defect to the MK Party, will evaporate.

Among businesspeople, enthusiasm for the GNU is even greater. The rand is about 7% stronger and the bond market 11% stronger than on election day, while the JSE’s main index has jumped 10%. Inflation has slowed, and the chances of further interest rate cuts in the coming months are good. Tourism is experiencing an unprecedented boom.

Delegations of government and business leaders to London and New York were received with positivity not seen in a long time. If these bear fruit and lead to investment, the dream of a 3% growth rate in the coming year is not far-fetched.

The fact of the matter is that market sentiment is not only based on the ANC’s acceptance of defeat in the election and the subsequent creation of the inclusive GNU but also on an unprecedented collaboration between the private sector and the government. This has already borne noticeable fruit in the management of ports and rail transport and has helped ensure that there has been no load-shedding since March 26.

This pact between business and the state will come to an end if the current GNU dissolves and is replaced by a coalition of the ANC, MK Party and EFF. The Ramaphosa faction, the DA, the IFP, the VF+ and the Patriotic Alliance fully understand the consequences for them and the country and will bend over backwards to resolve disputes.

The two immediate major stumbling blocks, the Bela education law and the national health insurance law are likely to be removed with minor amendments acceptable to all parties in the GNU.

The GNU is probably safe until at least the end of 2027 when the ANC must choose new leadership – provided the GNU continues to prove that it serves the public and that people begin to feel safer and receive basic services.

♦ VWB ♦

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