IF there is a winner in the power struggle in the Tshwane metro – and it doesn’t seem to be the residents – it is Panyaza Lesufi. But it is likely to be a short-lived victory that could soon sink his great ambitions. (Read here what a pyrrhic victory means.)
The conventional wisdom that a party governing in authority will inevitably grow, can only hold true if the party convinces voters that it has governed in their interests.
Sometimes it is in a party’s interest to be in opposition to show that the ruling party cannot be trusted with power.
But all political parties in South Africa blindly crave power, even shared power.
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The recent events in Tshwane demonstrate this problem.
Let’s get one thing out of the way first. Cilliers Brink and his DA/ActionSA/VF coalition were not sunk, and he was not dismissed as mayor because they were a bad government.
Before Brink was ousted, the ANC, EFF and ActionSA repeatedly said that he was a weak mayor who mismanaged the metro.
But this is objectively and empirically not true. Brink inherited a mess and started making solid progress. Financial management was improved, as confirmed by the Auditor-General; corruption was identified and cut out; incompetent staff were replaced by competent ones; and concrete steps were taken to improve infrastructure and services such as water supply.
A more honest tune
After the motion of no confidence, ActionSA is singing a very different, and more honest, tune.
Herman Mashaba has repeatedly said over the last two weeks that he initiated Brink’s fall because the DA treated him poorly and spoke with the ANC behind his back. The motive behind the motion of no confidence was therefore revenge, not poor governance. It was not in the interest of the people of Tshwane; it was in the interest of ActionSA, which “did not want to follow Agang’s path”. (That horse may have already bolted, Mr Mashaba.)
There is enough evidence that the DA indeed treated Mashaba and his party with contempt and disrespect and spoke with the ANC about stabilising metros behind his back.
ActionSA firmly believes the DA wanted to destroy them. Brink and his principals in the DA could have saved their coalition if they had been less arrogant.
Mashaba said at a press conference last week: “We have the constitutional right to defend ourselves, and that’s exactly what we did. I’m a very strong believer that when you are faced with a threat, and a threat that wants to really destroy you, what you do is attack first.”
If the new ANC-led coalition now manages the metro poorly – which is very likely – they will no doubt blame the Brink administration for it.
Gauteng premier Lesufi jumped at the chance Mashaba gave him to humiliate the DA. He knows full well that Brink and his coalition were the best chance to get Tshwane back on track, and he knows that his own party, sometimes in partnership with the EFF, has a pathetic track record in local government, even in Gauteng itself.
Moreover, this was an opportunity for Lesufi to strike a blow against the Government of National Unity (GNU) and Cyril Ramaphosa since the DA was involved in that government.
On Monday, SACP and Cosatu members protested with placards at the ANC’s ceremony to celebrate the GNU, some of which read: “We are Panyaza, Panyaza is us.” (Remember: “We are Zuma, Zuma is us”?)
Against the spirit of the GNU
It seems Lesufi is positioning himself as the leader of a new version of the ANC’s old RET faction, which seeks to undermine the Ramaphosa faction. He refused to share power with the DA in the Gauteng legislature, going against the spirit of the GNU and the preference of the national leadership.
Lesufi stood triumphantly and proudly next to the new mayor of Tshwane, ActionSA’s Nasiphi Moya, at her first public appearance after her election. (Brink’s comment about Moya was: “She’s in power, but not in charge.”)
Meanwhile, the ANC at the national level is backtracking and trying to persuade the DA to reinstate the recent draft agreement to stabilise all metros. The head of the DA’s federal council, Helen Zille, halted these negotiations after Brink was removed as mayor.
She responded as follows yesterday to ANC chief whip Mdumiseni Ntuli’s statement in parliament that his party wants to resume talks with the DA: “If he talks about stability in the metros, he must first explain to me how it works when the ANC demands stability for ANC mayors while voting out DA mayors.”
Local elections are coming ...
Lesufi can now boast briefly within his own circle that he has brought down the big white bull, but the local elections are only a year and a half away. As things stand now, the DA may grow in Johannesburg, Tshwane and Ekurhuleni, and surpass the ANC.
Then Lesufi’s ambition to become ANC vice president or even president in 2027 will be dashed. In the May elections, the ANC already secured only 34% of the vote in Gauteng, with the DA at 27%. Lesufi will then be known as the ANC leader under whom the party regressed the fastest.
If the GNU indeed continues on its current successful path and, as is currently the case, enjoys the support of most voters, Lesufi’s political career will sink like a lead balloon.
He is currently backed by the SACP and Cosatu, but it would be wise for him to remember that these groups also praised Jacob Zuma in 2007, only to become his fiercest critics when his true colours were revealed.
♦ VWB ♦
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