An October fest in policy and politics – and some party-pooping

THERE is an old saying that there are weeks when nothing happens, and then there are days when weeks happen. The first two weeks of October were days when a lot happened in both policy and politics.

The minister of home affairs, the DA's Leon Schreiber, gazetted new visa regulations. Visa reform has been a government priority for a long time, predating the government of national unity, and it has now happened at last.

The new regulations create a points-based system for foreigners to acquire South African work visas. They also create a remote working visa, where people can work elsewhere but still live in South Africa and work from here. These changes are significant and ease the visa regime.

Visa reform was a key part of Project Vulindlela's priorities. The others included spectrum release (done), electricity regulation reform (done), facilitating private sector investment into renewables (done and about R500 billion unlocked and counting), breaking up Eskom (transmission done; distribution still to be done), ensuring electricity supply (200 days no load-shedding and counting) and fixing water licences (done). It is remarkable what has been achieved with focus and political will.

Vulindlela 2 will soon be released and cover water security, logistics, further electricity reform, local government, spatial inequality and digital transformation. Water, spatial inequality and local government – these will all make a big difference to citizens’ lives.

Durban port setback

A negative development in October, and certainly a setback for Project Vulindlela, was the high court decision to temporarily interdict Transnet’s concession of the Durban port to an international port operator from the Philippines. The contract was for a 25-year concession with investments of about R11 billion to modernise and upgrade the Durban harbour. Maersk, a well-known name in South Africa, also wanted the concession and objected to the high court that Transnet had not correctly followed the tender conditions. The judge agreed with Maersk that it might have a case and his interdict stopped Transnet from proceeding with the tender. In a second set of proceedings, the court will now hear the merits of the case. It delays a decision meant to bring about a big productivity improvement and a few billion rand into the country.

We've had a similar situation before. Political problems and resistance arose when spectrum was released, but they were overcome, and the very long delayed exercise could proceed. Several companies then brought court applications to stop the release. In the end, the matter was resolved outside the courtroom. I hope that the port dispute will be resolved in a similar way. There is a responsibility to govern and make decisions; one cannot simply stand back and let the courts take over that function.

On October 1 government and business agreed on a second phase of their partnership, which has helped to make Vulindlela 1 a success. In this second phase, the priorities will be energy, transport and logistics, and crime and corruption. They tie in agreeably with Vulindlela 2 priorities.

Since that formal agreement on October 1, it has also transpired that several large companies are preparing to step in as the water crisis unfolds, particularly in Gauteng.

Noticeably, some ministers have modified their language about business and the private sector. When one sits in the same room, it shifts one’s perceptions.

Also in October, the US embassy in SA confirmed that it would hold a “bosberaad” with the SA government to form a stronger “strategic partnership”. It is a sharp U-turn from the Lady R allegations and follows the China–Africa summit where President Ramaphosa was received with a state visit. Non-alignment is possible even as some try to push SA into one camp.

A different turn

Just as the government of national unity was approaching 100 days in office, events in Tshwane took a different turn, away from the “government of unity” ethos.

ActionSA broke its coalition agreement with the DA and other smaller parties, supported a motion of no confidence by the ANC in mayor Cilliers Brink and replaced the DA administration with one consisting of ANC, ActionSA and EFF councillors.

About 18 months ago, in March 2023, ActionSA expelled some councillors from Tshwane because they were suspected of talking to the EFF and ANC. Party leader Herman Mashaba was on record that he would never go into a coalition with the ANC. Now ActionSA has done just that.

ActionSA spokesperson Michael Beaumont explained the U-turn by saying that May's (national) election results had changed the political ball game. Coalitions are now the name of the game and ActionSA had to adjust to that. He did not explain why ActionSA decided to scrap one coalition (with the DA and smaller parties) for another (the ANC and EFF). Whether the new coalition can improve the governance of Tshwane over the next 24 months in the run-up to the next local government election remains to be seen.

A missed opportunity

In response to the Tshwane developments, the DA’s Helen Zille made it clear that the party would no longer negotiate with the ANC on possible coalition governments in Ekurhuleni, Johannesburg, and Nelson Mandela Bay – three metros in dire need of the stability that a strong coalition government can provide.

Convincing ActionSA to jettison a coalition with the DA and join one with the ANC/EFF is a big victory for Gauteng ANC leader Panyaza Lesufi. His victory was further boosted by the DA’s suspension of further talks on coalitions in other metros.

Ekurhuleni, in particular, is a missed opportunity. The current ANC mayor has clarified that he would like to see a city government that includes DA members. As the mayor said, “There are only two years before an election. There's no time for new things. It is time for action and service delivery." But with the DA calling off further talks with the ANC, that option is now off the table.

In these missives, I have consistently pointed out that there are two centres of power in the ANC who would rather work with the EFF than the DA: the Gauteng ANC and the KwaZulu-Natal ANC. The KZN ANC was smashed in the election (17% of the vote). The Gauteng ANC did better with 35% and it is in control of the province. As Tshwane shows, the Gauteng leadership will do its best to sideline the DA.

Some factions in the ANC and the DA will jeopardise the idea of coalition, either through a very different philosophy or an undermining style. How this shapes and morphs the two main parties over the next two years will be interesting to watch.

It is unlikely that the Gauteng shenanigans will undermine the progress being made on the national level. None of the 10 parties serving in the GNU will walk away, and the work of the national government will carry on.

So what?

• The formation of the government of national unity was a win for the centre ground in our politics; the failure to do so in Gauteng is a loss.

• The loss in Gauteng is unlikely to upset or derail the win at national level. The work of the government of national unity will carry on.

• It is a big win that the process of structural reform at national level (Vulindlela) is proceeding apace. Government and business co-operation has been renewed for a second round and Vulindlela 2 will soon be released, reinforcing the reform agenda.

• This opens the possibility of a return to 3% plus growth over the next few years – South Africa’s average growth rate since the 1940s.

♦ VWB ♦

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