The ANC and DA need to learn to play poker

ORDINARY South Africans know the government of national unity (GNU) is a shotgun marriage but hope it can still work. The persistent bickering between the ANC and DA doesn’t exactly inspire confidence.

Many ordinary citizens would love to see the unhappy couple smile together occasionally, or even hold hands, even if just for a photo opportunity, but that would only add fuel to the fire for the hardline elements on both sides.

The EFF has now been reduced to just another small political party, but the shadow of Jacob Zuma’s MK Party (MK) casts a dark cloud over the entire GNU project.

The fact of the matter is that MK is the real reason for the GNU. It was MK, not the DA, that brought the ANC’s support down to 40%, and it was the nature of MK’s leadership and its threat to the constitutional order and the economy that drove the ANC and DA into each other’s arms.

Fearing further defections to MK

It is the fear that even more ANC voters and politicians will defect to MK, like former KwaZulu-Natal premier Willies Mchunu recently, that holds back Cyril Ramaphosa’s leadership from leading with more conviction and from reining in the corrupt and leadership elements that undermine the GNU.

The DA, without which the GNU would collapse, shows little sympathy for Ramaphosa’s dilemma and instead rubs salt in the wounds. It is also true that the ANC pretends and acts as if it is still governing alone, which is obviously unacceptable to the DA as a senior partner.

The ANC’s leadership in Gauteng and KZN, as well as its alliance partners, the South African Communist Party and Cosatu, are strongly opposed to the DA’s participation in the GNU. Gauteng and KZN are also the two provinces where the ANC has lost the most support. Senior ANC leaders planned to dissolve the party’s leadership in these two provinces but have now backed down out of fear of further defections to MK.

An interaction on Twitter/X this week between DA strategist and GNU negotiator Ryan Coetzee and academic Adam Habib illustrates the complexity.

“The underlying dynamic in the GNU is that the ANC wants to be able to continue unfettered, as if it hasn’t lost its majority, and the DA is not available for that,” Coetzee wrote. “The past few weeks have been very fractious as a result.

“The ANC gets enraged at being thwarted. It’s not going to get better unless the ANC accepts it needs to discuss and negotiate decisions, not simply impose them. That is the will of the people, as expressed through an election.

“If the ANC doesn’t like it, it can always go and negotiate decisions with MK instead. And good luck with that.”

To which Habib responded: “You’re absolutely correct. The ANC cannot ‘continue unfettered’. But neither can the DA have a veto. It is a party with support in the low 20s. It cannot behave as if it is the dominant party. Both parties need to adjust their behaviour in relation to electoral support.

‘Understand your hand; never overplay it’

“Also, don’t blackmail the ANC with MK. There are many within it that would prefer a relationship with MK and the EFF. And South Africa – including DA supporters – will be the loser.

“Understand your hand; never overplay it. The DA needs some lessons on how to play political poker.”

I would add that the ANC itself could do with a few lessons in political poker.

Coetzee responded to this: “1. The DA actually does have a veto, unless the DA wishes to deal with MK. That’s the arithmetic and how all coalitions work. 2. The DA accepts mountains of ANC policy in the GNU; the ANC, in contrast, resists compromise on a single thing.”

The ANC and DA are now clashing over three issues: foreign policy, especially regarding Russia and Ukraine; the national health insurance bill; and the Bela education bill.

The DA was furious when Ramaphosa described Russia as South Africa’s “good friend and ally” during his visit there last week. This was compounded by the visit to Moscow by senior SANDF generals and the announcement that a Russian “arsenal” of military aircraft would land at Waterkloof at the weekend.

Home affairs minister Leon Schreiber took his jab when he announced that he had signed a visa agreement with “our good friend and ally” Ukraine. ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula and Ramaphosa’s spokesperson, Vincent Magwenya, sharply rebuked Schreiber for this.

“Leon Schreiber claims to have signed the Ukraine agreement,” Mbalula said. “He is crazy and overly excited. Comrades are angry, but I’m not bothered because I know the president won’t sign it.”

There is no rational explanation for the ANC’s continued footsie-playing with Moscow. Russia is involved in an illegitimate war with its neighbouring state. South Africa’s trade with Russia is minimal, and there are clearly very little or no benefit for the SANDF in working with the Russian military.

The only explanation could be that it still suits Ramaphosa to parade the ANC’s traditional attachment to its old anti-Western dogma and the struggle-romance of the Soviet Union. Or could it be that he simultaneously wants to undermine Moscow’s affinity for Zuma?

Foreign policy does have propaganda value, but for most voters, it is peripheral compared to governance and service delivery. Both the ANC and DA could do with fewer statements on foreign policy. As a relationship therapist might say: Emphasise the common ground and de-emphasise the differences, at least until the relationship is healthier.

Compromise is possible

I think that compromise is entirely possible regarding NHI and the Bela Act, especially if the two parties refrain from adopting a win-win attitude in public. The Bela negotiations are further compromised by the DA handing over its negotiating role to Solidarity and AfriForum – nothing is more objectionable to ANC supporters than a Solidarity victory.

The ANC’s national executive committee has just met to reflect on the state of the party. Judging by the statements afterwards, it seemed like an honest introspection into the party’s spectacular decline, but it is really just a repetition of what was said right after Ramaphosa replaced Zuma as ANC president in 2017.

Perhaps the language this time was sharper. “The trust deficit between us and the people has widened,” Ramaphosa said. A document by three old fighters, Mac Maharaj, Pallo Jordan and Sue Rabkin, speaks of an “existential crisis” and blames “rampant corruption, resource-inspired factionalism, crass materialism, careerism and money politics”.

The party is now launching a campaign to rebuild branches – where the party once had about 1,4 million registered members, it now has only about 600 000. New members will be educated in the constitution and ANC history.

Like rearranging deck chairs

It feels like rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic. The most basic problem that remains unaddressed is the ANC’s parasitic relationship with the state on all three levels of government.

As University of Cape Town professor and Ramaphosa biographer Anthony Butler said this week: “Rather than just reforming the ANC, the leadership needs to break, or at least contain, the unhealthy relationships between politics, the state, and resources. Then the ANC would be able to properly pursue party political factions.”

Ramaphosa’s ANC leadership ends in December 2027. If the GNU with the DA as a partner still exists by then, it will need to boast a solid record to survive the election of a new ANC president.

The DA, with its predominantly white leadership, has probably reached its growth ceiling. If the ANC continues to transform halfheartedly, performs poorly in the 2026 local elections, and the GNU does not make a significant difference in voters’ lives, there is only one party that will continue to grow and grow: MK.

♦ VWB ♦

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