The liberation party’s struggle now is over its presidency

MK PARTY WATCHING

The liberation party’s struggle now is over its presidency

Ramaphosa has staked his own political reputation on the government of national unity, but his party's leadership struggle is bad news for him, and for the longer-term chances that the GNU will survive, writes PIET CROUCAMP.

ANGELA TUCK
ANGELA TUCK

IN an OR Tambo memorial lecture on October 27, ANC president Cyril Ramaphosa repeats a political honesty that some of his comrades do not want to hear, but which once again shows that there are moments when the integrity of his understanding is beyond doubt. For me Ramaphosa's speech was one of his most honest attempts to address the betrayal of the ANC towards the liberation struggle. There was tremendous conviction in the speech. In the hypothetical presence of the ANC's ancestors, Cyril used the Tambo memorial lecture to present a script with poetic value, a prayer of supplication, to his colleagues in the ANC.


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He put it this way:Even as the GNU [government of national unity] led by the ANC continues to make progress on charting a new course for our country’s development, the electoral outcome put in the starkest of terms what we must all acknowledge. Africa’s oldest liberation movement, the movement of John Langalibalele Dube and Chief Albert Luthuli, of Oliver Tambo, Lilian Ngoyi and Nelson Mandela, is facing severe challenges.

“We cannot but put this plainly. Support for the ANC has declined. Our mandate to govern has grown narrower. The trust deficit between us and the people has widened. The ANC is facing a crisis of authority, of legitimacy and of trust.” The eschatological reality that good deeds alone will not save the ANC from man's and God's judgment runs through the speech like a finely cut memory. 

Also confirming the irony of the quote above is that Ramaphosa is by far the biggest advocate and supporter of the GNU. He has staked his own political reputation within the ANC on it and also cherishes the likelihood that the better government it can potentially bring will save him from the terminal fate that befell his predecessors Jacob Zuma and Thabo Mbeki, who were dragged out of the Union Buildings.

Ramaphosa is putting literally every cent of his political capital on the GNU. If the DA walks away from the agreement tomorrow, he will not only be forced to negotiate with the EFF or MK – or even both – in the legislatures, his own political survival will be in murky waters. He knows that, Helen Zille knows it, and South Africa knows it, but also Stephen Bantu Biko, Oliver Tambo and Nelson Mandela.

Political hour of truth

Maybe I should first talk about the background noise to the fighting inside the GNU. There can now be no doubt that certain groupings, call them factions if you like, will start moving their chairs to the right for the ANC's leadership battle in December 2027. It is not an unfounded inference to make that the GNU means greater stability for South Africa, but is also leading to increasing and unbearable tension within the ANC. Paul Mashatile was so sickly just the other day that he had to be carried from a stage to a waiting ambulance, but this is now very clearly his political hour of truth.

Mashatile represents the ANC against which Ramphosa and the political ancestral spirits want to warn us. If you want to scrutinise something for his loyalty to the GNU, look no further than the mess he is making of the clearing house meetings for managing policy disputes between the political partners in the GNU. After only a few meetings, it is already clear that he is not going to concede an inch and that there is little prospect of compromises. He is not there to save the GNU, he is there to undermine it. Ramaphosa should not have left this process in the hands of Mashatile.

Mashatile clearly realises that there are other individuals with ambitions for the presidency, especially now that the name of Senzo Mchunu is being whispered more and more prominently in the corridors of regional politics, especially in KwaZulu-Natal. Mchunu was unable to eradicate the disorder and corruption of the department in his three years as minister of water and sanitation, but there is a consensus that he had taken on the cartels and criminals in the supply chains of the country's water logistics in a very bold manner. It is actually very detrimental that he was prematurely transferred to the department of police.

Mchunu and his management team are clearly putting the heat on the robbers and looters, especially in KwaZulu-Natal. The national police commissioner, Fannie Masemola, announced last week that since April 2024, 44,000 illegal weapons had been confiscated and in the last week alone, 132 weapons from criminals had been taken to police warehouses.

Important statistics

These statistics are important because, first, strong voices are coming from KwaZulu-Natal that Mchunu is finally offering South Africa's most militarised province a presidential candidate. One way for the ANC to consolidate political support in this province again is to have it play a more prominent role in national politics.

Second, the police ministry is the very best platform from which to launch a militarised and even authoritarian fight against crime, corruption and South Africans' pain and suffering. In the past year, the South African Police Service (SAPS) has already reported 364 deaths of suspects nationwide. Between July 2023 and July 2024 – specifically in KwaZulu-Natal – at least 107 suspects were shot dead. It appears that there is a particularly high incidence of such occurrences in the province. KwaZulu-Natal may not have the highest crime rate in the country, but it certainly has the most military-type violence.

These statistics naturally cause concern for some South Africans. Several organisations are calling for greater supervision and oversight to ensure that the police's actions remain within legal and ethical boundaries. Some commentators are quite rightly concerned about the militarisation of the SAPS under Mchunu. But some argue that in KwaZulu-Natal's militarised political culture, shooting first sometimes has a greater preventive impact on crime than arrests and court processes.

Perhaps it is important to know that the real discomfort from the seeping leadership narrative within the ANC is not just caused by individual ambition. All political ambition needs a support base to be competitive, and this inevitably leads to increased tension in an already unstable organisation like the ANC. Currently, potential candidates such as Mashatile, Mchunu, Nomvula Mokonyane and even Mmamoloko Kubayi are focusing on the ANC's two most volatile provinces, Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal. Everyone knows that these two provinces represent the battlegrounds where the battle for the presidency of the party in 2027 will be decided.

But let me return to Mashatile. He will under no circumstances proclaim his presidential ambitions publicly, but he certainly reckons that he has a proven advantage in the volatility of Gauteng. Unlike Ramaphosa, he does not insist that the party's provincial executive committee in the province should be placed under the control of Luthuli House. As things stand, there is ample political capital for his presidential ambitions in Mpumalanga and he is urgently looking for political partners in KwaZulu-Natal. For the moment the branch politics of KwaZulu-Natal is in total disarray with party leaders having no idea how many of their existing members sympathise with the MK Party and which political elites are sitting on two political chairs until the political winds of next year's local government elections show a clear direction.

It is therefore simply not wise for Mashatile – or any of the ANC's national leaders – especially those from outside KwaZulu-Natal – to throw their hats into that slippery ring. The problem at present is that the MK Party does not have enough paying positions for all those who want to defect, but that will come when the electoral commission's and the legislature's regular financial allocations are paid out. Many of the current ANC leadership corps in KwaZulu-Natal will move to the MK Party.

In Gauteng, Panyaza Lesufi has already shown his loyalty to Mashatile's cause and there can be no doubt that he expects to eventually become the Alex mafia's deputy president. However, Lesufi is also not ruling out the possibility that he can take the mantle from Ramaphosa without Mashatile, on the back of angry populism, during a chaotic national conference.

As in KwaZulu-Natal, there are many party members and cadres in Gauteng and Mpumalanga who are perfectly prepared to continue to exist within the ANC's well-financed patronage structures, but their hearts and their loyalty have long been with the EFF or the MK Party. These are Lesufi's people. The MK Party is a political organism with growth and impetus and will be even more so long after Zuma is dearly departed. It is a party that arose out of anger within the ANC, not out of sympathy with Zuma's cause. There can be no doubt that Floyd Shivambu and the MK Party will try to influence the ANC leadership battle.

If the Alex mafia hijacks the ANC ...

The fact that Luthuli House has periodic discussions suggesting that the PECs of both Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal be brought under the control of Luthuli House is strange, given that both Mashatile and Mokonyane are part of the top seven. These two are openly siding with Lesufi and the existing yet corrupt leadership of the PEC in Gauteng. Rumours from Luthuli House have it that Mokonyane will throw her hat in the ring as Mashatile's deputy, should the Alex mafia finally succeed in hijacking the ANC. By the way, both Mashatile and Mokonyane foresee a restoration of marriage rights between the ANC and the MK Party, precisely because that would be one way to regain control over KwaZulu-Natal.

It is amazing how many journalists and commentators claim that Mbalula will be a presidential candidate at the end of the Ramaphosa term. As secretary-general, Fikile Mbalula is the messenger who must convey Ramaphosa and party chairman Gwede Mantashe's exhortations to Lesufi and his cadres in the mafia-infested PEC in Gauteng. The reality is, when the elephants start wrestling in the smoke-filled rooms, Mbaks doesn't have much more impact than that of a village idiot.

Political volatility

The top seven are wise enough not to expect Mbalula to speak on their behalf in KwaZulu-Natal. For the past two years, Luthuli House has only ventured into the “Last Outpost" with a plane full of heavyweights. You cannot show up at an imbizo of warlords with Mbalula and his knapsack full of sycophantic small talk.

Currently, it is very difficult to see enough reasonable votes remaining within the ANC to form another GNU with the DA after the 2027 leadership election. I may be wrong, but if the ANC again only gets 40% in the next national election, the GNU will include the MK Party and maybe also the EFF.

For Ramaphosa, who under the circumstances of a massive loss of support and a growing militant opposition in KwaZulu-Natal, has to renew his party's consensus and moral assumptions, the dormant leadership battle is truly bad news. The RNE cannot save the ANC from itself. In fact, it wil probably bring stable government, but also stimulate dissent within the majority party. It is this political volatility that gives Mashatile, Mchunu and Mokonyane the leeway they need for the 2027 leadership battle.

♦ VWB ♦


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