The Catch-22 of the DA in the GNU

RUMOURS that the DA's minister of basic education, Siviwe Gwarube, is going to be fired by the president are bullshit, but not for the reasons the media is speculating about.

In Joseph Heller's novel Catch-22 US Air Force pilots are caught in a bureaucratic dilemma. It is the Second World War and the pilots may only be grounded if they are declared mentally unfit to fly. However, should they ask not to fly out of fear for their safety, they are in their right mind - self-preservation is rational - and therefore fit to fly. Something tells me that the DA, in the quest to save South Africa from the so-called “doomsday scenario", painted themselves into a similarly impossible position of the “rationality for self-preservation". A position that places political power in the ANC rather than in the government of national unity (GNU).

Federal council chair of the DA, Helen Zille, has already spelt it out very clearly that the party is bound by the real fear of a coalition between the ANC, MK Party and EFF. And she is absolutely right: it will indeed be a dark day if these three unstable political entities take over the steering wheels of the South African government. Not only will the new government likely move politically towards an unsustainable left-wing ideology, but one is furthermore not particularly insightful in suggesting that corruption will then become entrenched on a massive scale.

President Cyril Ramaphosa and the ANC also know that while this scenario presently need not be an immediate fear, it will cause absolute chaos in the party. When Zille describes such an agreement as a “doomsday scenario", she is not necessarily wrong; it will destroy the ANC and the South African economy. The Public Investment Corporation does not have the capital to absorb the flood of promissory notes that foreigners will pour into the market. Without the sober finance minister Enoch Godongwana, our economy is even further in trouble with international credit rating agencies.

However, the reality that the DA cannot use the potential unbundling of the GNU for political momentum also reaffirms the point that the DA is almost inextricably bound to remain within the GNU. A reality that terminally wounds this party's competitive position in the cabinet, as well as in terms of policy formulation. Ramaphosa knows this, DA leader John Steenhuisen realises this, and Ramaphosa as well as his political enemies within the ANC also know this now. You can see this in the contempt with which Fikile Mbalula, Panyaza Lesufi and Nomvula Mokonyane treat the DA's threats to leave the GNU. The minister in the presidency, Khumbudzo Ntshavheni, can hardly contain her public indifference towards the DA.

Worthless rhetoric

Six months ago there was sometimes clear concern within the ANC that the DA could revoke the agreement and Ramaphosa made a point of presenting the GNU in ANC meetings as a solution to South Africa's problems. But as the pressure within the ANC against the president's own position began to increase, he found it less possible to protect the DA in an agreement in which neither Steenhuisen nor Zille really saw an escape route.

The most recent threat by the DA's spokesperson, Willie Aucamp, that the DA will leave the GNU if the DA minister of basic education, Siviwe Gwarube, is fired at the insistence of a whole host of ANC factions, is worthless rhetoric. Ramaphosa has absolutely no plans to fire Gwarube. In fact, he considers her one of his better hires and is perfectly willing to take her under his wing, against the wishes of some of his colleagues. The president is significantly less protective of two other DA ministers, Dean Macpherson and Leon Schreiber. But, as News24 pointed out in their recent evaluation of the cabinet, these two politicians are clearly out to make a constructive difference and both the finance minister and the president realise the value of ministers who spend budgets productively. Their positions are therefore also secure.

However, the greater realisation that the DA is inextricably linked to the GNU has massive implications for the expectation that policy formulation will be the result of decisions within the GNU. Health Minister Aaron Motsoaledi's plans for national healthcare simply ignore the DA's policy proposals and Solidarity's attempts to hijack the Bela Act for their own marketing have now meant that the DA and Afrikaans schools have probably also lost this battle. Ramaphosa is now in a position to kick the Bela debate to the sidelines because the pressure to heed the DA's concerns has been completely alleviated by Solidarity.

The actors who seek to influence the government regarding the health care act are significantly more discreet and participatory. Motsoaledi's reckless theories about national health care are already being curbed by Godongwana. He realises that no budget in South Africa's stagnant economy can make Motsoaledi's wet dreams come true and he has real influence within the cabinet where this process will be brought to fruition.

Medical funds and interest groups trying to influence Ramaphosa's final decision realise the value of roundtable discussions, rather than a show of power at a prehistoric symbol of bloodshed like the Voortrekker monument. It would benefit the DA to quietly side with the Godongwana faction in the cabinet without blowing the trumpet, rather than taking up the matter itself on behalf of medical funds.

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Crying wolf

In last week's Vrye Weekblad, I was sceptical about Solidarity's agreement with Gwarube and the presidency regarding the Bela Act. Since then, most of my doubts have been realised. The ANC rejected the agreement and Ramaphosa made it clear that he was under no obligation to honour it. His clumsy footwork to get out of the so-called agreement has everything to do with his increasingly fragile power position within the ANC. These internal struggles in his political home make it almost impossible for Ramaphosa to pay attention to something as trivial as the DA's periodic crying wolf. He knows as well as Zille that the DA cannot afford to topple the pillars of South Africa on all of us like Simpson of old. 

In a conversation with Lourensa Eckard on KykNET, Tim du Plessis responded to my claim that it would benefit the DA and Solidarity to measure the room temperature within the ANC before they make false claims of great victories at Nedlac. I think Du Plessis's words were: “Why do we always have to consider the ANC's support base, what about our interests?" Well, Tim, don't take my word for it but listen to what the ancient Chinese military strategist and author of The Art of War, Sun Tzu, had to say: “If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”

So the answer is simple, the dire aftermath of the Bela Act is a good example of how power politics works, and if you want to run with the big dogs, don't pee like a puppy. The DA and Solidarity can ignore the power struggles within the ANC if they want, and pretend there is no real concern in the ANC's support bases about the act, but if you choose to ignore realities, don't be heartbroken and angry when you are reminded of your fragile power base. If power politics, rather than quiet diplomacy, is your modus operandi, then live with the outcomes of power as a negotiating mechanism.

False trumpet call

What Solidarity should have done after the Nedlac agreement was to issue a statement to the effect that progress has been made, but that this is only one step in a complex process with diverse interests that still need to be heard. The trade union should have realised from the beginning that no agreement that excludes everything and everyone except the DA and the presidency would be generally acceptable. The greater truth is that Solidarity cannot represent the interests of Afrikaans education alone.

How false now the trumpet call - “Bela's teeth pulled" - on the front pages of the Afrikaans media sounds. In fact, it is a political claim that has ultimately caused enormous damage to the cause for Afrikaans education. I don't know where the thing will end; maybe the ANC will find enough reasonable votes amid the opposition to make amendments to Bela after all, but I will be absolutely amazed if the door has not now finally slammed shut.

Dirk Hermann's threat to take the case to the courts is not indicative of a position of power, it is an unnecessary consequence of Solidarity's clumsy strategy that has now exploded in all of our faces. It is a threat made in weakness. Perhaps they should take the amendment to the Constitutional Court rather than spend money defending an unappetising political agreement. Something tells me such a constitutional case is not necessarily weak.

As I wrote last week, the president now has the ANC's caucus, the national executive committee, the national working committee, the provincial executive committees of at least eight provinces, and also the other members of the tripartite alliance to convince that Solidarity has a valid agreement with the presidency and the DA. Then there is the South African Democratic Teachers Union (Sadtu) and Section 27 that are also putting pressure on Ramaphosa to announce the date for the implementation of clauses 4 and 5 without delay.

The reality is that the ANC has again completely taken over the political power regarding government affairs and the DA once again has the theoretical function of a political corner postin the GNU. The DA can only escape from the agreement by pulling the rug from under South Africa's political economy.

Helen won't do that, and Siviwe is safe in her position.

♦ VWB ♦

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