SOUTH AFRICA has been punching well above its weight on the international stage for three decades, largely thanks to our peaceful transition from apartheid to democracy, the invocation of Nelson Mandela's name, and our modern economy.
With the seismic shift in international geopolitics following Donald Trump's election, our status as the leading country on our continent –the “gateway to Africa" – will be more important than ever. If we are no longer seen as a significant power in Washington, London, Berlin, Paris, New Delhi, Moscow and Beijing, we will be pushed around.
(Nigeria believes they compete with us for the title of “leader of Africa", but it actually only has a large economy to boast about – the country has about 230 million people compared to South Africa's roughly 64 million.)
South Africa still has considerable “soft power". Our open society and free media, the ANC's acceptance of electoral defeat and the subsequent creation of the government of national unity are examples. We are the only African member of Brics.
But all these examples of South Africa's “soft power" have been undermined in recent years by crumbling infrastructure, high crime levels, poor governance, worsening poverty and corruption.
And in the West, the ANC's obsessive flirtation with Russia, China and Iran places a red cross next to our name.
Military diplomacy a bloody mess
South Africa's catastrophic attempts at military diplomacy – potentially a strong arrow in the quiver of international diplomacy, especially in Africa – further undermine our status.
The poor performance of our military with the peace efforts in Mozambique and the disastrous Battle of Bangui in the Central African Republic in 2013, which claimed 15 SANDF soldiers' lives and led to a surrender, are examples.
And in the last week, 13 of our soldiers died in the eastern DRC. The SANDF contingent was surrounded by M23 rebels outside Goma, and soldiers informed their families in South Africa that they had “surrendered" and handed over their weapons to the rebels, that they had too little ammunition, and that the many wounded were not receiving help. Videos of our soldiers waving white flags appear to support these claims.
In one disturbing voice note from Goma by an Afrikaans-speaking female soldier circulating in South Africa, she says the women in the SANDF base fear they will be raped by the rebels.
Family members of deceased and wounded soldiers have expressed their distress in the media and on social media about receiving almost no information from the military.
The minister of defence, Angie Motshekga, waited until Wednesday afternoon to say anything about the conflict and deaths – at a somewhat chaotic media conference as part of the ANC's lekgotla feedback. President Cyril Ramaphosa also waited until Wednesday afternoon.
Motshekga appeared very awkward, made contradictory claims, and left it to her deputy from the UDM, Bantu Holomisa, to acknowledge that the lack of proper weaponry and air support lies at the heart of the drama.
Ramaphosa, shortly after speaking with Rwanda's president Paul Kagame by phone on Wednesday afternoon, directly accused that country's forces of having fired on South African soldiers.
Fellow South Africans,
— Cyril Ramaphosa 🇿🇦 (@CyrilRamaphosa) January 29, 2025
Following the recent intensification of fighting in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, South Africa has lost 13 brave soldiers who were dedicated to their mission and committed to peace. The fighting is the result of an escalation by the rebel…
War of words
Kagame immediately hit back, saying if South Africa seeks confrontation with his country, they will get it. He feels South Africa is not suitable to be a mediator in the DRC conflict.
He referred to his conversations with Ramaphosa, saying: “What has been said about these conversations in the media by South African officials and president Ramaphosa himself contains a lot of distortion, deliberate attacks, and even lies. If words can change so much from a conversation to a public statement, it says a lot about how these very important issues are being managed."
It almost appears as if Ramaphosa has somewhat forgotten his experience as the leading ANC negotiator of the 1994 transition. But perhaps this falling out between two of the key players in the DRC conflict is a turning point that could allow our country to play a more prominent role.
It is significant that Kagame, leader of a small, poor country, so easily challenges South Africa to military confrontation. He and other African leaders know the Rwandan soldiers were much more effective than the South African soldiers when they tried to maintain peace together in Mozambique.
Many of the senior officers of the Rwandan military were part of the Tutsi-controlled force that fought in the civil war between 1990 and 1994 and eventually took control in Rwanda. They are seasoned in insurgency and counter-insurgency.
There is consensus among military experts that the South African contingent in the DRC is totally underarmed, receives poor logistical support, and cannot do what is asked of them without air support, especially helicopters.
Playing golf while comrades die
There was widespread indignation that several military generals were relaxing at a golf day last weekend while the fighting raged in and around Goma – and that at least one air force helicopter was seen at the golf course.
Several military specialists have declared in the last year that the quality of certain units of the South African army, especially the special forces, is not in any way below standard. The problem clearly lies with the senior SANDF leadership and the defence ministry.
The SANDF was once the third strongest military force in Africa behind Egypt and Algeria, but today it takes tenth place, weaker than Morocco, Nigeria, Eritrea, the DRC itself, Sudan, South Sudan and Ethiopia.
Rwanda has been very successful with its military diplomacy and contributions to peace efforts on the continent in recent years – something that has rather irritated Pretoria. But Rwanda's strategy to present itself to the world as a reliable and strong partner in Africa is now being undermined by its undeniable support for the M23 rebels in eastern DRC. Goma lies on the border with Rwanda.
On the brink of full-scale war?
The South African minister of justice, Ronald Lamola, said on Wednesday he fears a full-scale war between the DRC and Rwanda is now a possibility. In the new Trumpian binary geopolitics, this, or even just a continuation of the current military confrontations, would be very bad for Africa and South Africa, due to our prominent involvement.
A first step towards defusing the conflict is an acknowledgement that Rwanda does have reasons to feel threatened.
The east of the DRC with its immense mineral resources has been highly volatile for more than a century; certainly one of the most complex problems in the world today. There are more than 70 armed militias active in the region.
After the genocide in Rwanda in 1994, a large number of Hutu extremists and former members of the old Rwandan military fled to the North and South Kivu provinces. They formed militias and threatened ethnic Congolese Tutsis, the Banyamulenge, who in turn also militarised and eventually began operating as M23.
The Kagame government supports the M23 rebels, and there is even evidence that the Rwandan military itself has become militarily involved in the Kivu provinces. M23 took control of Goma, a strategic trade and transport centre with more than a million inhabitants, in 2012 but withdrew after a peace treaty. M23 took over the city again this weekend.
The DRC says Rwandan support for M23 and the presence of about 4 000 Rwandan soldiers on DRC territory is a declaration of war.
Rwanda responds that the conflict on the Rwandan border is a serious threat to the country's security and territorial integrity, and Rwanda is obliged to defend itself.
Angola, Tanzania, Malawi and Burundi are all involved in the DRC conflict, but Africa and the world are waiting for South Africa to provide leadership.
This can only happen if the SANDF contingent in the DRC is strengthened to such an extent that it commands respect.
♦ VWB ♦
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