Now there are alternatives to Cyril

THE most important reason that Cyril Ramaphosa has been virtually untouchable as leader of the ANC and therefore president of South Africa, is that there has been no alternative candidate with credibility and substance for his leadership.

This is no longer the case.

Among the strongest candidates to fill his shoes are Senzo Mchunu, Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, Thoko Didiza and Ronald Lamola, although Paul Mashatile, Gwede Mantashe and Fikile Mbalula too have such ambitions.

Ramaphosa can theoretically remain president until the general election in 2029, but the ANC will in all likelihood elect a new leader in two years and nine months. People close to him do not believe he would then want to stay on as president and moreover, there is a strong feeling in the ANC that there should not be “two centres of power". Thabo Mbeki and Jacob Zuma were both forced out after they were replaced as ANC leaders.

Since becoming president in 2018, Ramaphosa has consistently been more popular among the South African public than the ANC itself. The contrast between him and his predecessor, Zuma, was enormous, and the mantra of Zuma's “nine lost years" resonated widely.

However, Ramaphosa was unsuccessful in saving the ANC from its inherently corrupt nature. Infrastructure continued to crumble; governance did not visibly improve; provinces, metros, and towns collapsed further; inequality, poverty, and unemployment did not visibly improve.

And the Phala Phala scandal, which still haunts him, has cast a dark shadow over his integrity.

Ramaphosa used much of his energy during his first term to prevent a split in the ANC. With the founding of Zuma's MK Party in December 2023, the spiritual father of the radical economic transformation movement, it happened anyway. The result was that the ANC, for the first time since 1994, was unable to achieve a majority in an election.

Ramaphosa deserves much credit for establishing the government of national unity with the DA, IFP and others, and for forming partnerships with the business sector to fix the state.

However, it does not seem clear that these steps have necessarily halted the declining curve in his popularity. Within the ANC itself, there is also notable opposition to co-operation with the DA and the business sector.

So who are the people who can take over the leadership of the ANC, in 2027 or even before that?

No clear constituency

On paper, the strongest candidate is the 70-year-old Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka. She was a minister in Mbeki's cabinet for six years, after which she replaced Zuma as deputy president. After Mbeki was kicked out, she was appointed head of the UN's unit for gender equality and women's empowerment. She was on the World Bank's advisory board and a member of the UN's task force involved with financing sustainable development.

Mlambo-Ngcuka, who is married to the former head of the national prosecuting authority, Bulelani Ngcuka, has a master's degree from the University of Cape Town and a doctoral degree from the University of Warwick. She was born in Durban.

Mlambo-Ngcuka, however, is not active in the ANC's internal politics and does not have a clear constituency that would support her candidacy. Unless something shifts, her chances are rather slim.

There is a feeling, even in the ANC, that it is time for a female president. The strongest female candidate is the current speaker, Thoko Didiza (60), also a Durban native.

She was a cabinet minister for 14 years under Mbeki and Ramaphosa, and has been a member of the ANC's executive committee for many years.

Didiza has an honours degree from Unisa and a master's degree from the University of Melbourne.

She is widely regarded as a dignified and effective speaker of the national assembly, a position that keeps her in the public eye.

Best chance

As things stand today, it appears that the minister of police, Senzo Mchunu (67), has the best chance of succeeding Ramaphosa.

Mchunu, who was born in eNhlwathi in the north of KwaZulu-Natal, is a former MEC and provincial ANC leader of KZN. He was the premier of the province between 2013 and 2016 and has been a member of the national cabinet since 2019.

Mchunu once was a Zuma confidant, but the two became estranged due to Zuma's management style and his role in state capture, and Mchunu subsequently became a key supporter of Ramaphosa in KZN.

Mchunu is seen within and outside the ANC as a much better minister of police than his predecessors. He has a BA degree from Unisa and was a high school teacher for many years.

The ANC's loss of support in KZN - where Zuma's MK Party received 45% of the votes in last year's election compared to the ANC's 17% and the IFP's 18% - is the most important reason for the ANC's national support dropping to 40%.

With the ANC's urban support still declining, regaining support in KZN is the party's only hope of remaining the largest party. Mchunu is probably best positioned to achieve this.

If there is a feeling in the ANC that it is the younger generation's turn to lead, Ronald Lamola (42) is the leading candidate. He was also the deputy president of the ANC Youth League under Julius Malema.

Lamola has two master's degrees from the University of Pretoria and was a successful attorney with his own practice before he went to parliament in 2019 and shortly thereafter became minister of justice and correctional services. He is a member of the ANC's highest decision-making structure, the national working committee. He has consistently been a strong opponent of Zuma.

Lamola receives recognition in the ANC for being one of the leading figures in South Africa's case against Israel in the International Court of Justice. He is currently the minister of international relations and co-operation.

Lamola was born in Bushbuckridge in Mpumalanga. His Shangaan-speaking father and Swati-speaking mother were farm workers.

Too many questions

But where is the current deputy president, Paul Mashatile, you ask? From conversations I've had with prominent ANC members in the last few days, it appears that Mashatile (64) doesn't have much hope of becoming president. There are just too many questions about his personal (extravagant) life and rumours of possible corruption, and moreover, his only power base is in Johannesburg and Alexandra, where the ANC is performing very poorly.

It is no secret that the current chairman of the ANC and minister of mineral and petroleum resources, Gwede Mantashe (70), firmly believes he should be the next leader of the ANC.

Mantashe, a former leader of the National Union of Mineworkers, is in all respects an ANC veteran and heavyweight, a skilled party-political hustler. He was elected as secretary-general of the party in 2007 as part of the Zuma candidate list, but later shifted his loyalty to Ramaphosa.

He was born in Cala in the former Transkei and obtained a BA (Hons) degree at Unisa and a master's degree in industrial sociology at Wits.

Mantashe was not a good minister and had to be forced by Ramaphosa to accept that the country needed energy from sources other than coal. He is also implicated in state capture due to his ties with the Bosasa firm and has made fierce personal attacks on judge Raymond Zondo.

Gwede is the old ANC, say some of my ANC conversation partners; he is part of the problem, not the solution.

Comical figure

The current secretary-general of the ANC, Fikile Mbalula (54), has great ambition himself to hold the highest position in the country. His terms as minister of police (2017–18) and especially transport (2019–23) were disastrous.

He is a former leader of the ANC Youth League and was one of Zuma's rottweilers in getting rid of Mbeki. In 2017, he backed Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma against Ramaphosa in the party leadership election, but from 2022 onwards was a strong supporter of Ramaphosa.

The arch-villain and state capturer Brett Kebble was one of his early mentors. He himself confessed that the Gupta Brothers informed him that he would become minister of sport, days before Zuma made the announcement.

Mbalula is a populist and until recently was regarded as a comical figure, with strange outfits, the display of his wealth and the titles “Fear Fokkol" and “Razzmatazz" which he gave himself. Since becoming secretary-general, he has behaved with somewhat more dignity.

He was born in Botshabelo near Bloemfontein.

My ANC conversation partners say Mbalula is a populist and quite popular in younger circles, but “he is definitely not presidential material".

Well, the same was said of Zuma before 2007. The ANC's congress delegates are usually more concerned with faction politics than with the actual merit of leadership candidates.

♦ VWB ♦

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