ANC conundrum: National unity vs revolution

TWO recent events indicate an increasingly two-pronged and contradictory approach by the ANC when it comes to deregulating the economy and implementing the National Democratic Revolution (NDR) doctrine of state control over the economy. This two-pronged approach reflects the dilemma the ANC is experiencing, as well as the balancing act that must be performed.

Concessions to deregulation

According to Vrye Weekblad of July 31, it seems the new Minister of Police, Senzo Mchunu, is prepared to transfer more powers to the City of Cape Town metro police. This follows requests from the mayor of Cape Town, Geordin Hill-Lewis, who has made it clear that he wants to be able to investigate crime, operate commuter rail services and generate electricity.

If this kind of deregulation takes place – especially the establishment of the metro's own power-generation capacity – it will represent a significant move away from the state control of the economy the NDR envisages. The same applies to the transfer of commuter rail services and network maintenance to the City of Cape Town, which may herald a limited move towards privatisation.

Preservation of state control

On the other hand, there are several indications of an opposite tendency. Transnet has said there are no plans for private entrants at the Cape Town port, unlike Durban. It says it has sufficient capacity to operate the port itself.

Furthermore, the South African Health Products Regulatory Authority (Sahpra) recently published a draft policy document which says licences will not be refused on the basis of broad-based black economic empowerment (B-BBEE) as Sahpra does not have the mandate to issue such refusals. However, the document suggests the authority is preparing to implement a two-phase approach:

• Phase 1: Require applicants to submit their B-BBEE certificates during the licence application process. The date on which this requirement comes into effect will be communicated to the industry. 
• Phase 2: Based on learning experiences from phase 1, Sahpra will develop further criteria for the licensing process in terms of section 22C(1)(b) of the Medicines and Related Substances Act.

The business organisation Sakeliga has pointed out that these criteria may pose a risk to businesses, as the seemingly innocuous requirements in phase 1 may lead to further regulation.

The dilemma of the ANC

The disconnect between the goals of the government of national unity (GNU) and the goals of the NDR, supported by alliance partners Cosatu and the South African Communist Party, is likely to lead to a continued two-pronged strategy. This could cause conflict, especially within the GNU, where the DA is likely to be inflexible about certain private initiatives, while the ANC focuses on state intervention in the economy.

It is possible that the police minister's willingness to transfer more power to provinces such as the Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal could lead to a move towards a federal model of government, which is not ruled out by the constitution. This approach should not be confused with secession or the so-called Not Cape Exit, and points to an interesting difference between the concept of a unitary state and a federal system.

What can we be sure of? Uncertainty

The ANC's two-pronged approach to economic policy reflects South Africa's complex political and economic landscape. As the party tries to strike a balance between state control and privatisation, conflicts and challenges are likely to continue. These remain interesting times for the country, with many uncertainties and potential changes on the horizon.

♦ VWB ♦