ONE of the architects of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) has urged South Africa to avoid being a leading megaphone on issues related to Israel and Brics.
Tony Carroll, a non-resident fellow with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Africa Programme, emphasised in an interview with National Security News that these positions clash with the views of the incoming Trump administration and leading Republicans.
Carroll said while there were strong reasons for the non-aligned view that South Africa embraces, and he did not want to dictate its foreign policy priorities, being vocal about Israel “and being singled out as the ringleader on some of these issues is going to be antithetical to the Trump administration”.
Key Republicans are urging the incoming Trump administration to reconsider South Africa’s participation in US trade agreements with Africa, should Pretoria maintain its current position on Russia, China, Iran and Israel. At risk are South Africa’s duty-free exports to the US, such as automobiles and citrus fruits, under Agoa and Pepfar, the US-assisted health programme to combat HIV/Aids.
Demonstrate benefits
Carroll said a factor that could sway Congressmen in favour of retaining Agoa is “we’re replacing Chinese or East Asian production and that there is no negative impact on US domestic production”. African countries, and South Africa in particular, must demonstrate that there are strong diplomatic and economic benefits to Agoa. He also suggested that South Africa should get more boots on the ground in Capitol Hill to interact with the media, think tanks, business associations and Trump administration officials.
Regarding a potential extension of Agoa beyond 2025 for South Africa, approved by the Biden administration, Carroll remarked, “South Africa is in trouble”. The Trump administration will be more critical, he said, citing South Africa’s relationship with Russia, its stance on Ukraine, its leadership in the Brics agreement, its ties with China, and “most pointedly, the issue of the ICC [International Criminal Court] case in Gaza”. South Africa’s case against Israel at the ICC, he explained, drove the review of South Africa’s inclusion in Agoa by the US Congress, he said.
Carroll criticised the South African government for not being more active in Washington. The last ambassador, Ndumiso Ntshingo, was a temporary appointment, and the new appointment, Ebrahim Rasool, will only assume his post later in January. Carroll suggested the way to combat the negative sentiment about South Africa on Capitol Hill, which has shifted from slightly negative to very negative even among centrists, is by being more present.
He said, “You really got to be out there and we haven’t really had a strong presence in Washington to make the good case that South Africa is important. Every once in a while, we’ll get a delegate from the South African government to come and say, don’t take us off Agoa. Occasionally we get a couple of ministers, and their visits have been successful, and then we have periodic show-ups from business leadership.
“That’s all been very helpful. But a lot of this stuff is really in the battle in the trenches, of really getting in and being there consistently and persistently, knocking on the doors and making the case with the media, think tanks, business associations on the Hill, and within the administration.” These, he said, are the people that influence decisions.
Carroll emphasised that South Africa needed to put more “boots on the ground” and make the case at the “minuscule level” by engaging with companies and associations that have business interests in South Africa to weigh in and support the country. This includes the automotive manufacturers, fruit importers and wine industry.
Transactional politics
Carroll emphasised that Trump is driven by transactional politics, and it starts at a person-to-person level. He said he was pleased that there was a favourable outcome to the conversation between Donald Trump and president Cyril Ramaphosa.
South Africa’s presidency of the Group of 20 this year is favourable and presents a pivot point globally for larger discussions, he said.
“It’ll be an opportunity to engage at a very high level in preparation for that event and since president-elect Trump has indicated his interest in coming, I think that’s a good opportunity for Ramaphosa to build a relationship with Trump at the very highest levels because I think that will signal to those people who don’t like South Africa that, wait a minute, you know, we have to rethink this because they seem to be getting along just fine.”
Carroll also touted the idea of “golf-ball diplomacy” similar to the ping-pong diplomacy that was a breakthrough in US relations with China, to win Trump over to South Africa and mentioned, in jest, the potential advantage of South African golfer Ernie Els’ close proximity to Mar-a-Lago, which could benefit South Africa.
“I’m old enough to remember that the beginning of the seeds of our relationship with China was really the beginning of ping-pong diplomacy, as we called it, and to a certain extent, we call this golf-ball diplomacy. If there’s an opportunity for them to talk about golf, then that’s great, that’s a point they can agree on, and let’s start there,” he added.
♦ VWB ♦
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