Kolisi government: 2024 could be our new 1994

A COALITION government between the ANC and EFF (and MKP?) will not be a government of national unity. It will be a government of black unity.

A coalition government between the ANC (40.18% of the vote) and the DA (21.81%) will be very unpopular, especially among the 24% of voters who voted for the EFF (9.52%) and MKP (14.58%), even if it is tempered by including the IFP (3.85%).

The “supply and confidence” model, which would mean a minority government with strategic voting agreements between the ruling and opposition parties, is perhaps the easiest to achieve, but in our context, it could lead to instability and precariousness.

South Africa needs a strong, brave, and visionary government today. A new beginning.

The first prize is a government of national unity (GNU) in the full sense of the word that acknowledges the vote choices of most citizens, which would include the ANC, DA, IFP, and the EFF.

Jacob Zuma’s MKP’s declared intention to scrap the constitution, their rejection of the election result, and thinly veiled threats of national unrest should naturally disqualify them.

A GNU composed of the ANC, DA, EFF, and IFP, possibly with the support of smaller parties, has the potential to ignite a new national spirit of optimism and cohesion.

But it must be based on a public, clear, written agreement or contract between all these parties, complete with mechanisms to resolve differences.

The initial proposals made by the ANC and the DA for such an agreement are very pragmatic and compatible. Both focus on defending the constitution, economic growth, economic inclusivity, social justice, the rule of law, clean governance, an effective civil service, and genuine land reform.

If we are heading towards an ANC/DA/IFP coalition, such a document could do much to quell the wild accusations that the DA wants to bring back apartheid, hates workers, and only cares about white interests.

The DA negotiators will need to maintain a fine balance between their own principles/policies and what is politically achievable.

The EFF has so far said they will not be part of a government involving the DA and has additionally set the confiscation of land and the nationalisation of banks, mines, and industries as preconditions for participating in a GNU.

But the EFF is used to communicating in capital letters and with a megaphone. This attitude might soften over the next few days – the party has indeed been much more moderate and pragmatic in the last few months than in the past.

It will take Solomon’s wisdom and Job’s patience to manage the DA and the EFF in one government, but I believe it is achievable with enough pragmatism on all sides. Perhaps a sort of Roelf/Cyril back channel like before 1994 is needed again.

If Joe Slovo and Magnus Malan could shake hands and joke over a drink in 1990, it should surely be possible for John and Julius too?

It is a big risk for both parties that have always vilified each other in extreme terms and truly differ fundamentally ideologically.

But there are also risks to non-participation.

If an ANC/EFF government really is, in the DA’s language, a judgment day coalition and leads to economic and governance decline over the next five years, voters and history will find it hard to swallow the DA’s ideological purity and innocence.

If an ANC/DA/IFP government is cleaner and more effective and grows the economy, the EFF could gradually wither and be as weak as Azapo or the PAC in five years. Their support has already dropped to 9.52%.

The election result is a costly lesson for politicians, analysts, and commentators: social media posts are no indication of political support or public opinion. If they were, the EFF and MKP would have received 80% of the support.

The opposition to cooperation between the ANC and the DA has been sharp and overwhelming on Twitter/X and Facebook in the last few days. Then the Brenthurst Foundation, which was very accurate with their polls before the election, conducted a survey showing that 40.2% of voters would prefer a coalition between the ANC, the DA, and its partners in the Multi-Party Charter. Only 11.5% want to see an ANC/EFF coalition, and 19.5% a coalition between the ANC and MKP.

The hard truth is that by far most South Africans do not actually care about ideology; they just want a better government and better services, and the DA’s record of governance is unparalleled.

President Cyril Ramaphosa’s graceful acceptance that the ANC lost the election and his statement that all parties are invited to be part of a GNU has elevated his status here and in the world. (He is reportedly getting ready to participate in the G7 summit in Italy on Thursday.)

We should be skeptical about the New Cyril after all his missed chances and indecisive leadership since 2018. But I have seen signs of the Original Cyril in him over the past week, maybe we should wait and see if his moment has finally arrived. We should keep in mind that his biggest stumbling block, Zuma and the RET faction, have now largely been purged from the ANC.

We should also know that his invitation to all parties might have been born as a strategic masterstroke: part of his party wanted to get into bed with the DA and part with the EFF, so he sidestepped the decision and said these two parties must decide for themselves if they are in or out. Vintage Cyril.

Speaking of the G7: the differences between the DA and the ANC on national health insurance and the Bela education law can still be resolved or circumvented, but what about the DA’s closeness to the West and the ANC’s to China, Russia, Cuba, and the Palestinians? It is ingrained in both parties' cultures.

Perhaps foreign affairs should be put slightly on the back burner until the GNU has found its footing.

Where there’s a will, there’s a way.

If a full-blooded GNU can be negotiated this week, 2024 could still become our new 1994.

♦ VWB ♦

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